The Polish residential market entered a phase of recovery in 2025, supported by improving mortgage availability, lower interest rates and stabilising supply levels. According to Robert Chojnacki of RedNet, the market is now moving towards balance, with moderate price growth expected in prime urban locations and overall stability likely to characterise 2026.
by Robert Chojnacki, RedNet
Market Performance in 2025: Recovery
In full-year terms, 2025 was a year of recovery rather than expansion. Total sales across the seven major markets reached 42.400 units, representing a 10.4% increase year-on-year and a 16.8% rise compared to 2022, confirming a gradual return of buyer confidence rather than a cyclical upswing.
This recovery was primarily supported by lower interest rates, with the NBP reference rate reduced to 4.0%, and a gradual improvement in mortgage availability, as 64.800 new housing loans were granted in 2025, accompanied by a visible rebound in lending volumes. At the same time, supply growth lagged demand. Only 49.600 units were introduced to the market in 2025, marking a 17.5% year-on-year decline. This constrained supply prevented excessive inventory accumulation and contributed to price stabilisation rather than downward pressure.
Large metropolitan areas demonstrated notable resilience and moderate price growth, while several secondary cities recorded flat or slightly declining prices, reflecting weaker local demand and greater sensitivity to affordability constraints.
The fourth quarter of 2025 confirmed a gradual stabilisation of the primary residential market across Poland’s major cities. Quarterly sales totalled approximately 11.200 units, representing a 4.2% quarter-on-quarter decline, but a strong 26.9% increase year-on-year, highlighting the rebound from the particularly weak base of late 2024. Supply continued to rebuild cautiously. The number of dwellings available at the end of Q4 reached 71.100 units, up 1.4% QoQ and 9.2% YoY, indicating improving but still controlled developer activity.
New project launches rose sharply quarter-on-quarter (+32.7% QoQ) to 12.300 units, although they remained 13.4% below year-earlier levels, reflecting developers’ continued prudence.
Price dynamics in Q4 remained broadly stable. Quarter-on-quarter changes in asking prices were moderate across most cities, typically within a –0.5% to +2.8% range, confirming that the market has entered a phase of price consolidation rather than a broad-based correction. On an annual basis, prices continued to increase in the largest and most liquid markets – particularly Warsaw, the Tricity and Kraków – while selected regional cities recorded mild declines.
Outlook for 2026: Towards Market Balance
Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a year of gradual rebalancing rather than dynamic growth.
On the demand side, further interest rate cuts and stabilised mortgage costs should continue to support buyer activity, particularly among first-time buyers and upgraders. However, demand is likely to remain highly price- and location-sensitive, with limited tolerance for aggressive price increases.
On the supply side, developer sentiment indicators point to cautious optimism, but not to a rapid acceleration in new project launches. As a result, supply growth is expected to remain moderate, supporting market equilibrium rather than generating downward pressure on prices.
Price outlook for 2026:
• Prime urban markets: low single-digit price growth (approximately 2–5%), underpinned by structural housing shortages and strong labour markets.
• Secondary cities and peripheral locations: broadly flat prices or mild corrections, particularly where inventory levels remain elevated.
Overall, 2026 is likely to be characterised by stability and selective growth. The risk of overheating appears limited, while the probability of a sharp correction remains low under the current macroeconomic environment.